Pitchers to seek and to avoid, 2009

Pick up Baker, Wandy Rodriguez

Cahill, Arroyo must go

Every year in late May/early June, I examine which major league starters have pitched better than their fantasy statistics (wins, ERA, WHIP and strikeouts) indicate. We know that luck is a factor in all of those stats. Is the bullpen blowing leads? Is the offense bailing out a pitcher giving up a lot of runs? Are base hits barely avoiding infielders’ and outfielders’ gloves? Are line drives being hit right at defenders?

Over the course of a season, the element of luck tends to even out. I wrote “tends” because even a 162-game season with no more than 35 starts isn’t a large enough sample to knock all of the luck from the equation.

Two statistics that aren’t included in most fantasy leagues give the most accurate picture of how well pitchers are throwing. The keys for every pitcher are throwing strikes and avoiding giving up hits. We express those traits as Strikeability and Hittability. To measure Strikeability, I use strikeout/walk ratios. For Hittability, the stat is opponents’ batting average.

Using this tried-and-true system, I have projected such outstanding late-season sleeper success stories in recent years as Darrell May, Oliver Perez, Jake Westbrook and the late Cory Lidle. Now, I have lists here that show you Roy Halladay, Zack Greinke and Johan Santana have good pitching value. You probably already know that.

But if you can come up with a starter of modest accomplishments who suddenly strikes for double-digit wins with an ERA and WHIP better than the league average during the season’s last 3-4 months – as the pitchers above did – you’re going to make impressive moves forward in your league standings.

Last year, we gave you Ted Lilly as a pitcher to seek and Livan Hernandez as one to avoid. At the end of May, Lilly was 5-4 and Hernandez 6-2. Over the remainder of the season, Lilly went 12-5 with 18 quality starts in 22 games, and Hernandez was 7-9 with just six quality starts in 19 attempts.

I place pitchers into four equal groups in six different statistical categories. Those are the four fantasy stats that apply to starting pitchers in a 5X5 league – Wins, ERA, WHIP and Strikeouts – as well as the measures that I have found determine exactly how well a pitcher is pitching – Hittability and Strikeability – as opposed to the fantasy stats he has achieved.

In this Article, the charts for each league include all starting pitchers who were on a pace to qualify for the ERA title. They show where each pitcher stands in those two measures of raw pitching ability. It is important for pitchers both to throw a high percentage of strikes (Strikeability) and avoid being hit (Hittability).

Those with the lowest Opponents’ Batting Average and the highest Strikeout/Walk Ratio are in the top one-fourth of those pitchers, or Group 1, in each category. The poorest performers are in Group 4. To determine an overall rating, I add the group number in each of those categories. Thus, the best Overall Ratings are 2 (1+1) and the worst – those who no longer should be starting in the majors – are rated 8 (4+4). Average pitchers are rated 5; above average is anything from 2 to 4, and below average is between 6 and 8.

With few exceptions, there’s nothing surprising about the pitchers rated 2. Most –Greinke, Halladay, Santana, Erik Bedard, Dan Haren, Jake Peavy, Javier Vazquez and Justin Verlander – are recognized as among the best pitchers in baseball. You’ll want them on your team, but you’re not likely to be able to get them in most leagues unless you make a trade. It’s when you see a less heralded name – such as Johnny Cueto and Wandy Rodriguez – then you should take notice.

The next step is comparing their ratings with the league leaders in the fantasy categories. When you see a pitcher with an above-average rating of 2-4 here but poor results in one or more fantasy categories thus far, that’s when you want to make a move. (Or vice versa, when a pitcher with a below-average rating of 6-8 here has been getting good fantasy results, it’s time to look toward trading him while his value is high.)

The pitchers on the “Seek” list either have 2 Overall Ratings or rate above average but have struggled in one or more fantasy categories. Because they have been pitching well over an extended period, you can expect their fantasy statistics to improve as long as they maintain the way they have been pitching. 

Here are the fantasy categories where the “Seek” pitchers haven’t achieved fantasy stats as impressive as we might expect from their Strikeability and Hittability stats.

Wins – Bedard (2 Overall Rating), Koji Uehara (3) and Scott Baker and Jorge De La Rosa (4).

ERA – Baker and Rich Harden (4).

Strikeouts – Joe Saunders (4).

WHIP – None.

You’ll have to use discretion with the Wins category, for pitchers with really bad teams might not be able to win as often as those with pennant contenders. Thus, Bedard, unless he’s traded, or Uehara still might not receive as many wins as they deserve.

Here are the categories where “Avoid” pitchers might have been lucky to date, with that luck likely to take a turn for the worse.

Wins – Bronson Arroyo (8 Overall Rating), Shairon Martis and Jason Marquis (7), Randy Johnson (6).

ERA – Paul Maholm (6).

Strikeouts – Johnson and Josh Beckett (6).

WHIP – None, which combined no names from the pitchers to seek above makes it seem that WHIP itself might be a fair indicator of who’s pitching well.

NOT WANTED on any fantasy baseball roster:

Before we go to the charts, let’s talk about some of the pitchers at the bottom of this list, those with 8 Overall Ratings. It’s difficult to build a case for them – Arroyo, Trevor Cahill, John Lannan, Mike Pelfrey, Jon Garland, Jeff Suppan and Todd Wellemeyer.

On the charts you’ll find as additional articles, remember that the farther a pitcher is to the top and the left, the better he is, and the closer to the bottom right corner, the worse he is.

Following are our overall lists, in order, of pitchers to seek and to avoid.

We’ve downgraded a few pitchers, such as Bedard and Peavy, because of injury concerns. We also moved Baker, who pitches for a better team, ahead of Uehara.

On the list of pitchers to avoid, we’ve seen signs of life out of Gavin Floyd that give us hope that he might be of some use during the latter two-thirds of this season.

Pitchers to seek

American League

Zack Greinke

Roy Halladay

Justin Verlander

Erik Bedard

Scott Baker

Koji Uehara

Joe Saunders

National League

Johan Santana

Javier Vazquez

Dan Haren

Wandy Rodriguez

Johnny Cueto

Jake Peavy

Jorge De La Rosa

Rich Harden

Pitchers to avoid

American League

Trevor Cahill

Josh Beckett

Gavin Floyd

National League

Bronson Arroyo

Jeff Suppan

Todd Wellemeyer

Jon Garland

Mike Pelfrey

John Lannan

Shairon Martis

Jason Marquis

Paul Maholm

Randy Johnson